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Considering the historical movement of the art district in New York, I suspect that Chelsea, like SoHo, will not be the center of the contemporary art scene permanently. The art market has shown itself to be quite mercurial with its tastes, styles, interests, and trends constantly changing. Keeping this in mind, I think it is easy to imagine another move due to any number of factors especially if it is led by one of the innovators or well-known players of contemporary art who could trigger others to follow. As Chelsea becomes more popular and the retailers invade (I was there in November and many high end retail stores had already moved in), the art scene may be pressured to move again. One advantage that Chelsea has in terms of maintaining the area as an art district and preventing the influx of other businesses is the relative lack of transportation to the area compared to that of SoHo. While I think this will certainly slow the business/retail sector's arrival, it will not prevent it entirely. The appeal of the Highline will also draw commerce and potentially become a factor in pushing the arts out even while its initial purpose was to highlight and strengthen Chelsea and its vibrant art scene. There are already other areas in New York, especially in Brooklyn, that are developing respectable art districts, but whether one of these will be the next SoHo or Chelsea is yet to be seen.
Contrasting images of Soho SoHo (top) and Chelsea (bottom):
