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A recent aution at Sothebys was marked by some the typical attributes of the contemporary auction as noted in the Thornton article. Klimt's _Litzlberg on the Attersee_ made $40.4 million, well above the estimated $25 million it was expected to generate \[1\]. |
Link to image here: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/03/arts/design/sothebys-art-auction-totals-nearly-200-million.html
Though Sothebys auctioneers likely use the same statistical methods that Burge describes, this is proof that the market is often unpredictable when those with unlimited financial means are involved. The article also points out that sale had more modernist material than recent sales. L'Aubade by Picasso sold for $23 million.
Link to image here: http://www.artnet.com/magazineus/news/artmarketwatch/sothebys-impressionist-and-modern-sale-11-3-11_detail.asp?picnum=5
This resonates with Thornton's observation that serious collectors tend to buy newer works because they want to stay ahead of the curve (Thornton, 13). This may also help explain why, aside from the Klimt painting, the other top grossing sales were from the modernist paintings. Though these modernist paintings aren't exactly new, perhaps this is a compromise between the uncertainty of the primary art market and the desire to have more recent work.
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